Amazon Nova AI response to the above question is 8.65 years!

Based on the retrieved data, the current CO2 emissions from Alberta's oilsands are approximately 86.5 million tonnes per year, while China's current CO2 emissions are approximately 12.6 gigatonnes (Gt) per year, which is equivalent to 12,600 million tonnes per year.

To determine how long it would take for China's CO2 emissions to eclipse the reductions from shutting down Alberta's oilsands, we need to consider the rate of increase in China's CO2 emissions. According to the retrieved data, China's CO2 emissions increased by 0.7% in 2024, which is a significant slowdown compared to the 4.5% rise in 2023.

Assuming a conservative estimate of a 1% annual increase in China's CO2 emissions, it would take approximately 8.65 years for China's emissions to increase by an amount equivalent to the current emissions from Alberta's oilsands. This is calculated by dividing the current emissions from Alberta's oilsands (86.5 million tonnes) by the annual increase in China's emissions (1% of 12,600 million tonnes).

However, it's important to note that this is a simplified calculation and does not take into account other factors that could influence the rate of increase in China's CO2 emissions, such as changes in economic activity, energy demand, and government policies.

In conclusion, based on the retrieved data and a conservative estimate of a 1% annual increase in China's CO2 emissions, it would take approximately 8.65 years for China's emissions to eclipse the reductions from shutting down Alberta's oilsands. However, this is a simplified calculation and should be interpreted with caution.

Sources

Wikipediawikipedia.orgcarbonbrief.orgcopernicus.orgstatista.com

So the key point would be if PM Trudeau had shutdown the Oilsands, those emissions reductions would be eclipsed by increases in emissions from China, before PM Carney became PM!